VCC Magazine Summer 2018

V irginia C apitol C onnections , S ummer 2018 13 Republican Congressional Incumbents Struggle in the Age of Trump By Stephen J. Farnsworth Virginia’s 2018 elections are starting to look like a movie we have seen before. As of mid-summer, this year’s congressional contests are shapingup tobe the second consecutive year with an unpopular president looming over Commonwealth politics. Energized Democrats, including a larger than usual number of female candidates, hope once again to capitalize on efforts to tie GOP candidates to President Trump and his policies. Trump, whose approval ratings are underwater nationally and even more underwater inVirginia, helped sink a number of Republican incumbents in the House of Delegates elections last year, when a 66-34 GOP majority in the chamber gave way to the current 51-49 split. There were other markers of trouble for the GOP last year. Democrats also swept the three statewide offices for the second time in a row in 2017. Democrats also have also won every US Senate election in Virginia since 2006. Even ifmany individualRepublicancandidateson the congressional ballot this year would rather not talk about Trump, Corey Stewart, the Republican nominee for the US Senate seat now held by Democratic Tim Kaine, is making sure the president’s policies are front and center in the state’s political discourse. Stewart’s campaign emphasizes contentious issues like immigration, Confederate monuments and blocking Medicaid expansion, all of which do not earn Republicans all that many voters not already supporting the GOP. To make matters worse for the party, a number of influentialVirginia Republicans object to Stewart’s nomination and have pledged not to assist his general election campaign. Normally parties that endured a string of electoral defeats—think of Virginia Democrats in the 1990s—adjust their politics to take account of the actual electorate, rather than the state electorate they wish were out there. Democrats of that era nominated more moderate alternatives, like Mark Warner, to maximize the party’s chances of winning. Similarly, the shell-shocked, narrow Republican legislative majorities in Richmond this spring adapted to the actual political environment, with several Republicans working with Democrats to pass a Medicaid Expansion bill, a measure long blocked by Republicans. Taken together, Trump and Stewart have created a very difficult environment for Republican congressional incumbents in districts that are not overwhelmingly Republican. Consider, for example, the re- election challenges faced by Rep. Barbara Comstock, a Republican who represents the western suburbs of Washington in a district stretching from Manassas to Winchester. In 2016, Trump lost Virginia’s Tenth Congressional District in 2016. But he was a drag, not an anchor, as Comstock outperformed Trump in every single precinct in the district that year. But can she continue to place enough distance between herself and the president this year? That may be very difficult given Trump’s ability to dominate political discourse day after day. As a result, Comstock is rated as the most vulnerable Republican congressional incumbent in Virginia by the Cook Political Report. Comstock drew several Democratic challengers this year, and Virginia Sen. Jennifer Wexton, the party’s nominee, will have plenty of money to advertise the links between Republicans Comstock and Trump. Another Republican-held seat at risk in the current political environment is the Seventh District, where Dave Brat represents a district that stretches from the Richmond suburbs to Culpeper. That district is ranked a “toss up” by the Cook Political Report. Two other Republican-held districts, the Fifth (which stretches from the North Carolina line into Warrenton) and the Second (based in Hampton Roads), are listed as “Lean Republican.” Neither of those seats would be all that competitive if Trump had lost the 2016 presidential election. The Cook Political Report lists Sen. Tim Kaine’s seat as safe for the Democrats. Stewart would have been a stronger Republican candidate in the Virginia of the 1990s than in today’s changing Commonwealth. US Census population estimates for Virginia show large population gains in and around major cities and little population growth in rural areas, another problem for Republicans who prefer to campaign on issues like immigration and the legacy of the Confederacy. Stewart’s campaign seems unlikely to give his fellowRepublicans a boost in what is shaping up to be the second tough year in a row for the GOP in Virginia. Stephen J. Farnsworth is professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington, where he directs the Center for Leadership and Media Studies. He is the author of “Presidential Communication and Character: White House News Management from Clinton and Cable to Trump and Twitter,” recently published by Routledge. WCVE (Richmond, Charlottesville)—Sunday 9 a.m. WBRA (Roanoke, Lynchburg)—Sunday 10 a.m. WVPT (Harrisonburg)—Tuesday 5 p.m. WHRO -World (Norfolk)—Tuesday 5 p.m. • Thursday 5:30 p.m. ARC TV (Southwest Virginia)—Wednesday 1:30 p.m. & 7:30 p.m. Norfolk’s Neighborhood Network, TV-48 —Sunday through Thursday 5 a.m. & 8:30 p.m. Thursday & Friday at 10 p.m. • Saturday at 5 p.m. Suffolk Network, TV-190 —8:30 a.m. & 5:00 p.m. daily Weekly show information is on Facebook— THIS WEEK IN RICHMOND Past shows may be found on YouTube. For more information: http://ideastations.org/tags/week-richmond V I E W I N G S C H E D U L E V