VCC Magazine Spring 2019

V irginia C apitol C onnections , S pring 2019 18 Editor’s note: Dr. Larry Sabato was kind enough to participate in our very first issue of Virginia Capitol Connections Quarterly Magazine, 25 years ago. Here is what he has to say, a quarter of a Century later. 1. In your opinion, is Virginia a blue, red, or purple state? I’d call Virginia either blue-ish purple or purple-ish blue. It certainly isn’t red. It isn’t completely Blue. And it’s not a swing state, at least in most elections. That’s quite a change. When I was born in August 1952, Virginia was Solid Blue, almost completely controlled by the Democrats, but conservative Democrats—not the liberal Democrats of today. In the sixties, overall, Virginia was Purple and competitive. Then in the late sixties Virginia turned Red and stayed that way throughout the 1970s. Back to Purple in the 1980s, Red again in the 1990s, Purple in the 2000s overall, and Blue primarily in the 2010s. Why did I put the reader through this?  Because the only constant is change . I can think back to all those decades, and in each one, the political class (pundits too) were convinced that the Virginia of their current day would be the Virginia going forward. We were all consistently wrong. Let’s remember this as we look ahead and confidently predict the Virginia of tomorrow. 2. Does it appear that legislators do not stay as long as they used to, and if so, why? This is cyclical. I’ve seen times when the only way to get incumbents out of their seats was to dynamite them (or invite the Grim Reaper to sleep over). Virginia of the Byrd Organization era was noted for its stability. Incumbents could stay a long time, as long as they voted the organization’s way. And when changes occurred, it was a shift of people, not philosophy. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Change became more rapid beginning in the mid- 1960s, with the Supreme Court decisions about one person-one vote (fairer redistricting) and the abolition of the poll tax and literacy tests, among other things. The old order began its exit, and more moderate-to-liberal Democrats won seats in the legislature. Linwood Holton pulled in a fair number of GOP legislators when he won the governorship in 1969, and Republicans’ long trek (three full decades) to domination of the General Assembly began.  Almost every time there was a party shift in the governor’s office, there was a trend to seat turnover, in the direction of the newgovernor’s party. Plus, serious redistricting occurred every ten years after the Census (plus additional court-ordered redrawing of some or all districts). This accelerated seat turnover in the General Assembly on a regular basis. Finally, the cost of legislative campaigns skyrocketed, and the massive amounts that must be raised for primaries and general elections deters some legislators from staying as long as they might otherwise. 3. Has the style of the legislature changed? By style, I refer to whether they are younger, more informal, or less conservative. My first trips to the General Assembly were in the later 1960s. The first State Senate I saw was all-male, all-white. (Doug Wilder was the first Senate breakthrough for African Americans in 1969.) The House of Delegates had a couple of blacks and a couple of women—otherwise all white, all male. No doubt there are still curmudgeons who think it was better back then. I disagree strongly. It is a wonderful thing to look over the legislature today. Many women and African Americans, at least some Hispanics and Asian Americans, a fair number of youthful delegates and senators are all in evidence. They may not be as experienced as in days of yore, but only if you count “experience” as years in various public offices and long private sector careers. Yet these new legislators bring different kinds of experiences because of their varied backgrounds, and their energy and enthusiasm is an antidote for cynicism. I wouldn’t go back to the old days for a minute. 4. Twenty five years ago you said you would never run for office, has that changed? At least I’ve kept one promise in my life, and certainly pleased loads of people by not running! Politicians like to say, “Never say never.”Well, I’m not a politician, and I’m 66, and I thoroughly enjoy what I do. So I’ll go ahead and say ‘never’. However, I genuinely appreciate those who do run for office, and make the sacrifices needed to campaign and serve. 5. Do you see Virginia remaining a part-time citizen legislature or do you see Virginia becoming a full time “career” legislature? I can’t see into the 22nd century, but for the foreseeable future, I think the part-time citizen legislature is a secure tradition in Virginia. 6. What’s the last book you read? “Divided Politics, Divided Nation: Hyperconflict in the Trump Era” by Darrell West. Dr. Larry J. Sabato is recognized as one of the nation’s most respected political analysts. He appears multiple times a week on national and international TV, including FOX, CNN, MSNBC, and CNN International. Dr. Sabato is the founder and director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. The University of Virginia has given him its highest honor, The Thomas Jefferson Award. with Larry Sabato Q & A V