VCC Magazine Fall 2019

V irginia C apitol C onnections , F all 2019 10 On behalf of Virginia voters, the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University submits this analysis about the issue of gun control in the Commonwealth. The analysis presents recent views of Virginians on gun control issues using the Wason Center’s data base of public opinion research on this topic. While Virginians are more closely divided on question of “principles” regarding the gun debate, there is broad consensus that transcends the normal bounds of partisanship in the electorate when it comes to specific gun control proposals that have been discussed in the Commonwealth since the state’s first mass shooting atVirginia Tech University in 2007, which left 32 people dead. The principle statement, “Is it more important to protect gun rights or control gun ownership” produces a modest advantage on the side of gun control, 54% to 41% in our 2018 iteration of the question. But on specific reforms such as expanded background checks to close the private sale, or so-called “gun show” loophole, support is overwhelming: 84% in support to just 15% opposed. Even the more controversial reform proposal, the assault weapons ban, polls decidedly in favor of the ban: 65% in support, 34% opposed. It’s a key to illustrate the point that you don’t get much above 50% in anything in American politics in the polarized era where voters assess everything from the state of the economy to the performance of a president via their partisanship. So, its important to dig into these numbers and appreciate the level of support these two reforms earn, not only from Independents, but more importantly, from self-described Republicans. On background checks, 76% of Republicans supported this reform in our 2018 survey. And although still a minority within their party, 45% of Republicans supported the assault weapons ban, which was also supported by 66% of Independents. So, with robust public support at this level, even support among Republican voters, and two amiable Democratic Administrations supportive of these reforms, why has there been no action on these issues in the Virginia General Assembly? The answer to that is complicated and it highlights a problem Republican elected official are facing across the country: how do they reconcile strident positions supported by the Republican base, and perhaps more importantly, powerful interest groups like the NRA, with the political realities they face in swing districts where voters want action? With control of both chambers of theVirginia Assembly on the line, including the Speaker’s own seat, Republican leader Kirk Cox’s answer to this paradox over the summer was to avoid the debate. Faced with several bad options the Speaker chose to end the Governor’s special session on guns before it really began; a move that will no doubt highlight the fact that movement in this policy area hangs on the balance of partisan control of the state’s General Assembly, with voters rendering a verdict on the question this November. Faced with pressure from their own base, and constraints from party members serving in safe Republican districts, Republicans are counting on another long-standing electoral reality ofAmerican politics to hold onto their majorities. The anti-gun control side might be small in number, but up to now, have been mighty in turnout. In an election where just 30% of registered voters are expected to show up, having public opinion on your side is not enough, especially if Democrats fail to leverage their advantage on this issue. Supporting Virginia hospitals and health systems to help enhance clinical, financial, and operational performance by delivering an array of products, resources, and services from endorsed, vetted partners who deliver the results needed in today’s dynamic health care environment. http://vhhaservices.com David Jenkin s, (804) 965Ǧ1350, djenkin s@vhha.com Through the Voters’ Eyes: Gun Control in the Commonwealth By Rachel Bitecofer Continued on next page